As part of its broader renewable energy transition, Europe has set ambitious goals for the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). However, leading European airlines are now sounding the alarm: without significant increases in production, these targets may become unattainable by 2030.
Three months after the European "RefuelEU" regulation came into force — requiring airlines to use 2% SAF from 2024, scaling up to 6% by 2030, 20% by 2035, and 70% by 2050 — the aviation sector remains concerned. Despite a doubling of global SAF production between 2023 and 2024, sustainable fuels still account for only 0.5% of total jet fuel consumption. Moreover, SAF remains two to three times more expensive than conventional kerosene, and supply levels fall far short of demand.
According to a study by Boston Consulting Group, Europe could face a 30% shortfall in SAF supply needed to meet the 6% mandate by 2030. In addition, synthetic SAF (e-SAF) production is projected to miss its target by 45%.
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has openly stated that it is now evident the SAF supply will not meet the 6% goal by 2030. Without immediate measures to boost production, he and other industry leaders argue that the timeline should be revised.
The 2024 production figures further underscore the urgency. Instead of the anticipated 1.5 million tonnes, global SAF production barely exceeded 1 million tonnes. Moreover, purchase commitments for SAF dropped by 74% in volume last year, leading to a 45% decrease in SAF prices — yet this did not stimulate higher sales.
Neste, Europe's largest SAF producer, faced stockpiling issues and had to delay commissioning a new facility in Rotterdam. Meanwhile, 29% of airlines have taken no action toward their 2030 SAF goals, largely awaiting a potential price drop.
Investment in new production facilities remains sluggish. Less than 30% of planned SAF production projects have secured financing, indicating a major bottleneck in scaling the industry.
Airbus and other stakeholders are advocating for a "book and claim" system. This mechanism would allow airlines to purchase SAF certificates even if the actual fuel is consumed elsewhere. This would help carriers meet their regulatory requirements even at airports without SAF availability.
While the aviation sector broadly supports this idea, the European Commission has expressed concerns. Regulators fear that "book and claim" might concentrate SAF production at a few sites, undermining broader market development.
Without rapid intervention to scale up SAF production and streamline regulatory frameworks, Europe's aviation sector risks missing crucial decarbonization milestones. Stakeholders urge policymakers to act swiftly, ensuring that the clean energy future for aviation remains within reach.